Quality vs. Affordability: A Case Study
Everyone agrees: We need more affordable housing. While blue states like California or Washington have seen prices rise for decades, now major cities across the nation are feeling it. Yet, while blue states have grappled with the problem for decades, red states have somehow managed to rebound faster than any of them. Looking at census data for housing growth, the South dominates. Collin County, just north of Dallas, experienced 3.9% growth (nearly 18,000 units) between 2023 and 2024, while King County experienced just 1.2% growth (around 13,000 units) in that same time.
The effect? Blue states on the West and Northeast experienced a 5-13% increase in housing prices over that time frame while red states maintained modest 3-8% increases. Despite nearly 11.7% population growth from 2020 to 2024, home prices in the Austin metro area have been on the decline since 2022.
So, if blue states have had decades to tackle the affordable housing crisis, how come they’re being beat by the newcomers?
To answer that, let’s first take a look at what actions some blue states are taking now. We’ll focus in on Redmond, Washington, which has historically been a suburb of Seattle, but is now shifting identities.
Redmond is interesting in that although it was built as a suburb, it is no longer operating as one. Redmond is home to Microsoft, Nintendo, and many other major tech companies and therefore is a large job center in the region. In 2020, 88% of workers in Redmond commuted there from outside of the city. In total, 89,113 workers came to Redmond to work, while only 24,436 commuted outside of the city. Although it may look like one, Redmond no longer fits the traditional definition of a suburb–a place near a major city where people live, commuting into the city for work.
Considering this, Redmond has taken upon itself to transform from suburb to city. This is the tagline of their Redmond 2050 comprehensive plan. One of the main goals of the plan is affordable housing. So, how is Redmond hoping to achieve this?
Middle Housing
In 2023, the Washington State Legislature decided to take affordability matters into their own hands. They passed HB 1110, which forces cities to allow middle housing in areas previously zoned for only single-family housing. Middle housing includes housing types between single-family houses and larger 5-over-1 midrise apartment buildings, like duplexes, triplexes, rowhouses, and stacked flats.
In response to HB 1110, Redmond has integrated middle housing into its comprehensive plan.
In the new plan, housing types from detached single-family homes to sixplexes to courtyard apartments are allowed throughout the city. This goes far beyond the state’s requirements, which only requires up to fourplexes everywhere.
Redmond should certainly be praised for its liberal attitude to housing. On the surface, they have loosened restrictions to considerably. But will all this new housing actually be built?
Before a developer can build housing in Redmond, they need to submit their designs to the city for approval. Before a design is approved, it must pass a laundry list of requirements. It must modulate or articulate to “reduce the perceived size of buildings”. It must “fit the typology and site”. If a developer is building multiple homes at once, they must vary the designs significantly to avoid monotony. This design review process slows down development and raises the bar for who can participate. Although, Redmond is doing better than most here, having repealed their requirements for landscaping in new developments, which can add significant costs.
Now, let’s compare this to Williamson County, the fastest growing county in Texas, just north of Austin. 3 out of the 5 largest cities in Williamson do not require any sort of design review for single-family development, and the county itself has no aesthetic requirements for its subdivisions.
If you’re a national developer, it ends up being much less of a hassle to develop somewhere like Austin, where you can develop hundreds of houses at a time with less administrative overhead, compared to somewhere like Redmond, which has a high bar for new development.
All of this means that despite Redmond seemingly welcoming attitude to new housing, it’s not clear it will come at the scale required to solve our housing crisis.
Mandatory Affordable Housing
blah blah blah
A Suggestion: Impact Fees
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